Analysis

Two recent regional elections have seen the governing coalition (CDU/CSU/SPD) suffer major setbacks and have put the survival of the grand coalition at risk. The poor results have also hastened Angela Merkel’s decision to step down as CDU Chairman in December and formally announce that she will not run for another term as Chancellor. The decision has sparked off a race to succeed her as party Chairman, with contenders including former CDU party leader Friedrich Merz, CDU Secretary General Annegret Kramp-Kareenbauer (who is likley to win Merkel’s backing) , Armin Laschet, Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia and the acting Fderal Health Minister, Jens Spahn.

The SPD have reacted to their poor showing in Hesse and Bavaria by conducting an evaluation of their key demands from the coalition upto autumn 2019. If these have not been met, the assumption is they would withdraw from the government. Former SPD leader Sigmar Gabriel has said he expects the coalition government to break up by the EP elections at the latest , making way for the original Jamaica coalition (CDU/CSU/FDP/Greens) foreseen after the federal elections.

In the Hesse elections on 28 October both the CDU and SPD saw their support drop by 10%. The CDU remain the largest party on 27% but lost voters to the Greens and AfD in almost equal measure. The SPD collapse to 19.8% saw them only just pip the Greens to 2nd place but they have seen their support collapse even further since joining with the CDU in government again. The big winners were the Greens, who as in Bavaria, seem to be overtaking the Socialists as the progressive party. They almost doubled in size to just under 20%. The current coalition in Hesse between the CDU and Greens could just survive another term. The AfD scored 13% and are now installed in each of the 16 Laender. The Liberals FDP won 7.5% and the far-left Die Linke 6.3% – both an improvement on their 2013 results.

The elections in Bavaria on 14 October were as disastrous for the CSU as had been feared, dropping by about 10% to its lowest level for half a century. It received only 37.2% of the vote.  The result was just as bad for the Socialists, who were pushed into 4th place on under 10% of the vote – an historic low. The future of the governing coalition must now be in doubt, with the SPD in particular feeling the effects of entering another grand coalition.

The big winners on the night were the Greens who moved into 2nd place on 17.5%, followed by Free Wahler on 11.6%, whose 1 MEP, Arne Gericke sits in the ECR group. The Liberals (FDP) only just scraped into the Landtag on 5.1% and the far-left Die Linke failed to reach the 5% threshold. All the talk had been on the rise of the AfD, who did well getting 10.2% but hardly a landslide.

Germany will not introduce thresholds for the EP elections, effectively meaning that small parties will only need to get 1% of the vote to have an MEP elected. This is likely to result in a number of small, single issue MEPs.

Timetable for party lists

The Christian Democratic Union is the only party in Germany which does not produce a national list of candidates, but a list for each of the 16 States/ Länder. These lists are published on different dates up to the end of the year, with 3 states having already made their decision. The Christian Social Union, will publish its list at the earliest at the end of autumn following the state elections on October 14.

The Social Democratic Party will finalise their list on 9 December at a party conference in Berlin. There is an ongoing dispute with the party’s associations from the eastern states who feel under-represented on the list and are calling for a potential rule for fixed places from each state on the list.

The Green Party will publish its candidate list at the party congress in Leipzig on November 9-11. The party has already published its election program.

The Alternative for Germany  (AfD) announced that it will decide on the candidate lists at a congress in the beginning of 2019.

The Federal Committee of the Left Party will submit its proposal for a candidate list on November 17/18 in Berlin.

EPP (33 MEPs)

MEPs standing down include Karl-Heinz Florenz ((North Rhine-Westphalia); Reimer Böge (…

S&D (27 MEPs)

Jakob von WEIZSÄCKER MEPwill leave the European Parliament early next year to become the…

ECR (6 MEPs)

The former AfD Members who have remained in the ECR group have not announced their…

ALDE (4 MEPs)

No information from the FDP members on their intentions

GUE (8 MEPs)

No news on Die Linke.

GREENS (13 MEPs)

Ska Keller, co-Chairman of the Greens and candidate for the Greens Spitzenkandidat, will…

Other

The former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis will head the list in Germany for the…

++ Weil Muslima sich durch seinen Anblick gestört fühlten: Vater fliegt mit kleiner Tochter aus Schwimmbad ++
Wir sagen: Männer, Frauen und Kinder - alle sind im Schwimmbad willkommen. Wem das nicht passt, der soll einfach draußen bleiben!
#AfD
➡️ https://t.co/DhJInKQkbr

#70JahreFDP In der Politik braucht man vor allem eins: Einen langen Atem! 💪 #Journalistenadvent

#70JahreFDP: Ohne die @fdp wäre das #Saarland heute womöglich kein Teil von 🇩🇪. Während Adenauer an dem von ihm durchgesetzten „Saarstatut“ festhalten wollte, setzten sich die Freie Demokraten für eine sofortige Wiedereingliederung des Saarlands in die Bundesrepublik ein.

Load More...