Analysis

The party alliance of PM Viktor Orbán (Fidesz-KDNP) has won every election (parliamentary, municipality, European Parliament) since 2006 and according to the opinion polls it is still likely to dominate the May 2019 elections. The issue of migration has been the main topic in Hungarian political life since 2015 and this trend will continue during the EP campaign. Viktor Orbán has successfully monopolized the issue, branding himself as the only politician defending his country from the massive influx of migrants. At the end of August 2018 he formed a pan-European anti-migrant alliance with Italian interior minister Matteo Salvini. Viktor Orban said “ There are two sides at the moment in Europe. One is led by Macron, who is supporting migration. The other one is supported by countries who want to protect their borders”.

The parties of the opposition are fragmented and becoming weaker and weaker. However the fact that they were divided was a handicap during the national elections which used a mixed electoral system, this could turn to their advantage in the EP elections where a proportional electoral system is used.

The future of Fidesz in the EPP group is under threat after the majority of the EPP voted in favour of the resolution calling on the Council to start article 7 proceedings against Hungary for violations of rule of law. The EPP President, Jospeph Daul,  has indicated that he feels Fidesz should stay a member until the Council has reached a conclusion, which is likely to be well after the May 2019 EP elections.

EPP (12 MEPs)

Viktor Orbán’s goal will be to maintain the large number of seats he won in 2014 Among…

S&D (4 MEPs)

Hungarian Socialist Party (2 MEPs) has their the weakest result since 1990 at the last…

GREENS (2 MEPs)

In 2014 the joint party list of Együtt-PM-LMP won two seats but it is uncertain whether…

Other (3 MEPs)

Although Jobbik has always been known for its extremist political view and rhetoric,…

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