Analysis

The Italian political scene has changed dramatically since the last elections.  In 2014 the Democratic Party obtained an historical success, reaching 40%, and returning 30 MEPs – the largest national delegation in the S&D group.  The  general elections in March 2018 were dominated by the Five Star Movement (30%) and the League (18%), while the Democratic Party (18%) and Forza Italia (14%) obtained the worst result of their history. Things have not improved for them and the most recent polls indicate the League has reached 30% and is in competition with the Five Star Movement (30%) to become the largest party. Democratic Party’s popularity remains unaltered if compared to last March (17-18%), while Forza Italia has been suffering a considerable loss of support(7-8%).

Migration will be one of the main issues during the election campaign. This issue has become an European one, since the distribution of migrants between the Member States of the EU is now part of the wider political agenda.  Matteo Salvini the leader of the League and Minister for Internal Affairs, has seen his popularity increase following tough decisions on receiving migrant ships in Italian ports.

Italy is one of the main beneficiaries of the distribution of additional seats following the departure of British MEPs and will gain 3 extra seats, bringing its representation up from 73 to 76 MEPs.

Most recent polls (SWG – 15th of October):

League 30,5%

5SM 28,1%

DP 17,1%

FI 8%

Brothers of Italy 4,1%

EPP (15 MEPs)

Forza Italia – The party is experiencing its most difficult moment as Salvini and the…

S&D (31 MEPs)

The PDs officially supports Frans Timmermans as socialist candidate for the European…

ECR (2 MEPs)

Raffaele Fitto, who was  elected in 2014 for the Conservatori e Riformisti party, will…

ALDE (0 MEPs)

Surprisingly, Italy has no members of the ALDE group

GUE (3 MEPs)

Rifondazione Comunista  – The situation within the GUE and its main Party, European Left,…

EFDD (14 MEPs)

Five Star Movement - The Five Star Movement (5SM), now part of the Government, has been…

ENF (6 MEPs)

League – Salvini’s leadership of the party is currently very strong and he will be able…

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